I know my advanced stats pretty well. I'm better than your average fan with them, and we can leave it at that.
A friend of mine pointed out to me last night that Domonic Brown's BABIP (.287) is lower than his actual batting average (.289).
What? How's that possible?
I was stumped, but my friend was smart enough to dig in. I'd never even thought about it, but BABIP removes homeruns from the equation. Since BABIP is really there to estimate and judge a hitter's and pitcher's luck, I guess there's none when a ball flies over the fence.
I'll share with you what I shared with my buddy last night. If you're going to start checking BABIP more often, don't come to concrete conclusions until you go to Fangraphs and check line drive percentage. If the hitter's LD% is high, then it's likely his 'lucky' or high BABIP will be sustainable. And that's applicable in the reverse way for a pitcher.
I think this is all just another way of saying Domonic Brown has absolutely destroyed baseballs for the last month.